by Hayden Gibson
8/21/2016
Every year I go into my drafts knowing there are some players I just will not end up with.  Maybe it is because I am not willing to pay the price to draft them or maybe it is because I dislike the player.  Regardless of the reason here are ten player I will likely not own in the 2016 season.

Doug Martin – Martin is one of the players I am much lower on than others.  You will typically find him in the top 10 in people’s rankings but he is well outside the top ten in mine.  I am a Charles Sims believer so I think those that take Martin in the second round will be grossly over paying.  I’ll gladly wait 5 rounds later and take Charles Sims who I think will provide more value than Martin in 2016.

Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben in theory seems like a great option at QB in fantasy.  He is the quarterback for the best offense in the league which happens to have the best wide receiver and best all-around running back.  Would you believe it if I told you Big Ben’s highest finish in fantasy was 4th?  Better yet would you believe in his 12-year career he only has three top 10 finishes?  His current ADP shows him as QB6 off the board in the 6th round.  I completely understand the thinking behind taking him that high but this is way too high for a QB that is not a consistent top 10 QB year in and year out.  On a side note his playing style can lead to him missing some game.  The guy refuses to take a sack which can lead to injuries that causes him to play injured or miss a week or two each season.

Jonathan Stewart – The starting running back on the league’s highest scoring offense is typically a very attractive option in fantasy but I must say Jonathan Stewart makes the night shift at the Waffle House look good.  Cam Newton is the primary goal line threat for this team so it is hard to envision him coming close to scoring 10 touchdowns.  He is not very involved in the passing game so he will not bail you out there in the event they fall behind and need to abandon the running game.  You are pretty much hoping for 80 yards and a touchdown for him to provide value from a week to week basis.  Not to mention the guy carries a big injury risk as he hasn’t played a full season since 2011.  Right now he is going in the late 4th early 5th round according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com and I think that will end up being a dead pick.  I may have some heartburn when it comes to Stewart as I traded for him last season preparing for my playoff run and he was out injured during the most important stretch of my season.

T.Y. Hilton – Yes Hilton has some monster games each year even I will admit he has the potential to drop 20+ points any given week.  However, between those huge games he has some pretty mediocre games.  The 4 catches for 40 yards type of mediocre games.  Most will argue his numbers suffered because Andrew Luck was out the majority of the year.  Fair point but I will counter with Donte Moncrief being Luck’s main guy.  Moncrief caught a touchdown in five of the seven games Luck played in 2015.  Hilton will cost you a third round pick while Moncrief will likely fall to the fifth or sixth round.  So if I want a piece of this Colts passing game I’ll be taking Moncrief and I am actually a firm believer Moncrief has a better season than Hilton.

Jordan Matthews – Yeah I want zero shares of this guy.  New coach Doug Pederson runs an offense the pretty much neglects the slot receiver and Pederson has already said he views Matthews as a “big slot guy.”  Prior to him tweaking his knee during training camp they were working on moving him to the outside.  Good news for Matthews supporters right?  Yeah but the eagles tried this during the first half of last season with very little success.  It wasn’t until they moved him back to the slot when Matthews started putting up the numbers owners were expecting.  I would be more comfortable considering Matthews if there were positive reports about his transition to the outside but unfortunately he will likely be held out until week 1.  I would say I am avoiding Matthews but that’s not the case.  I try to find value in every player and I could see a scenario where he makes the transition and becomes a solid player but this season there is no way he falls to the point in drafts where I would begin seeing the value.  He is going around the seventh round and I would feel much more comfortable taking him in the late 9th early tenth.  Needless to say I will not be owning him this year.

Stefon Diggs – What can I say I am a Treadwell guy.  I can see them letting Teddy open up this offense a little bit leading to more opportunities for the receivers in Minnesota.  However, the only part of it I want to own is Treadwell.  Diggs was solid last year trust me I would know because I greatly benefited from his mini breakout.  I think this one comes down to talent.  I love Treadwell’s talent and I think he will be something special in this league.  The Vikings offense likely will not be able to support a RB1 and two relevant fantasy WRs so I have got to say I will be passing on Diggs this year.  He is a solid WR I am just more excited about Treadwell.

Tyler Eifert – This is another guy I owned in a few leagues last year.  Yes, he finished the season as one of the top TEs and was a touchdown machine.  Owning this guy was a nightmare if you ask me.  I love owning high upside guys but I want them to have some kind of weekly floor especially out of a guy you see as a starter week in and week out.  Eifert would follow up a huge week with a 2 catches for 40 yards.  He even put up a goose egg after starting the year on fire.  He only had 52 receptions and just over 600 yards so the 13 touchdowns really bailed him out.  I couldn’t be too upset last year with his inconsistency due to how cheap he was in drafts, but this year he is going to cost you a seventh round pick so you’ll be drafting him as your starter.  If you are fine with being let down two or three weeks at a time and enjoying a multi touchdown game then he is your guy.  If I invest that high of a pick in a TE I want one with a solid floor so Eifert will not be on my radar this year.

Adrian Peterson – This is the big one and a lot of folks will disagree, but I have my reasons and this is basically personal preference.  I honestly like five other RBs better than AP when it comes to fantasy.  The best pure RB in the NFL is AP until he shows otherwise I will be the first to say that.  However, fantasy football is not real football.  If I were drafting a team to form an actual team to go out and play actual football games for a season of course I would want a RB like AP.  Besides an elite QB he would likely be my number one player to target.  This is fantasy though so a player’s situation and position trends come into play.  History shows RBs start to decline after they reach the age of 29.  Yes, we are talking about Adrian Peterson he is not your typical running back.  This is true but father time has gotten the best of some of the all-time greats.  I might be completely wrong about not wanting to take AP as a top 5 RB which I can live with that, but if I draft him ahead of some of these younger guys I am really excited about and he shows a decline I will not be able to swallow that since the writing is on the wall when it comes to older workhorse backs.  Since a lot of people view him as the safest option at RB it is safe to say I will not be owning AP this year.

Miami Running Backs – This situation is a disaster now.  Foster looks horrible but Gase sounds like he is ready to name him as the starter.  Jay Ajayi has done very little to impress with the opportunities he has had.  In my opinion the most impressive back in Miami so far this preseason has been Isiah Pead.  Sadly, I don’t think he will receive any consideration to get enough touches in the regular season to make him fantasy relevant.  The only guy I will think about considering is Ajayi if he falls late enough in drafts or he starts doing something to seize the opportunity he has to be this team’s number one back.  This is a situation I will likely avoid all together.

Jimmy Graham – He is getting by on name value alone.  We so this exact same situation with Victor Cruz.  Same injury people viewed Cruz as a steal in drafts and you got absolutely nothing in return.  I’ll be pulling for Jimmy to comeback as his old self but I am not willing to burn a draft pick on him.  He will likely be dead weight because I am not sure if he will be on the field to start the season.  I will let someone else draft him and if week 3 or 4 he is set to return I will keep an eye on him if he has been cut by his original owner.  In no way am I wanting to own him as my number 1 TE.