Over/Under in the County

Andrew Brennan, Jared Chastain, and Hayden Gibson ran some over or under question by each other.  One writer would propose a scenario and the other two would take the over or the under.   So let's kick things off with Jared's scenarios he presented to Andre and Hayden.

Jared's Over/Unders

Jordan Reed O/U 89.5 receptions

Hayden: I am going to take the over on this one.  I am banking on him staying healthy for the entire season which is a stretch I know.  He is the number one target in the passing game for the Redskins and registered 87 catches in 14 games last season.  If there is a Tight end that could make a push at entering the Gronk tier this season Reed is the guy and a lot of it will be due to his volume.  Health is the only problem with Reed which is why it was kind of tough to take the over on this one.

Andrew: Under… Have to go under on this one.  If guaranteed 16 healthy games, then I would consider this about a 50/50 chance of happening.  However, the harsh reality is that Jordan Reed is a walking concussion.  I can't remember a season that didn't involve Reed missing at least a few games.  I do like Reed’s talent a lot, and I am buying in on Kirk Cousins talent as well, and I am even liking the connection Captain Kirk established with Reed, but just can not buy into Reed's health.  This also does feel like a really big number for a TE regardless.
Donte Moncrief O/U 9.5 touchdowns

Andrew: Over… This one was very difficult, but I like Moncrief this year a lot and I think he will be just over 9.5 at 10 TDs.  I just do not think the Colts have a ton of red zone threats outside of Moncrief.  Dwayne Allen is a good TE but never seems to be able to stay healthy, Gore could fall on the chalk a few times but he doesn't seem like a guy they have to go to in the red zone and Hilton, who may actually be a bit underrated in the red zone, but still is not an elite red zone target.  So by sheer volume it feels like Moncrief has to get there.  Moncrief has the body to be a primary red zone threat, at 6'2, 220 (exactly the same as Dez) and seemed to have a connection with Luck early last year, scoring TDs in each of his first three games with Luck healthy.  He certainly has the opportunity to get in the double digits, I think he has the talent, we will see if it all works out.

Hayden: I am super high on Moncrief this year so this one is easy for me and I am taking the over.  I have said it numerous times on the podcast Moncrief
is the most complete wide receiver on the Colt's roster.  In five of the seven games Luck played in last year Moncrief a touchdown.  So with another year under his belt and the Colts going to more three wide receiver sets I see a HUGE year coming for Moncrief and there is no doubt in my mind he tops 10 touchdowns. 

Antonio Brown O/U 1,964.5 yards receiving

Hayden: So Jared’s question is essentially will Antonio Brown break the single season receiving yardage record.  If Le’Veon Bell was suspended for the entire year I would be inclined to lean closer to the over on this one but with Le’Veon only slated to miss 4 games I’ve got to take the under.  When Bell is on the field the offense runs through him and Brown’s numbers show a decline when Bell is healthy.  With Bell off the field Brown puts up MONSTER numbers and that would make this record much more obtainable.  I think the four weeks Bell is out Brown will put up the necessary yardage to be on pace to make a run at the record but he will experience some regression beginning week 5.  I think Brown has a fantastic year but I think last year is the best we will ever see from Brown yardage wise.  So if the record is broken this year it will be a Julio or Odell Beckham that takes it down.

Andrew: Over… I am deciding to go bold here, as this is predicting a new NFL single season yardage king!  He would beat both Calvin Johnson and Jerry Rice and eth his name in the record book.  Antonio somehow accumulated over 1,800 yards despite Big Ben missing over 4 games.  So if Ben can just cut it down to 2 or maybe 3 missed games, and Brown plays better with the replacement level QB, it is quite possible he eclipses this all time mark.  He only racked up 111 receiving yards in three weeks without Ben, which is a mark he passed 7 other times in a single game with Ben at QB.  So if he can play better with the replacement and Ben can stay healthier, it seems within the realm of possibility to eclipse the all time record.

Adrian Peterson O/U RB3.5 ranking

Andrew: Over… I was tempted to take the under on this, because it seems that AP has such great stability, and is a very reliable top back, but I think Elliot, David Johnson, Gurley and Lamar Miller out score him.  Although he is seemingly made of a different substance than all other humans, he is heading into his age 31 season, which is concerning for any RB.  His lack of receiving skills do take away just some of his value, because if the Vikings are down he could see less touches.  He is still absolutely a once in a lifetime talent, but I don't see him cracking the top 4 RB's this year.

Hayden: Most may know that I am not too high on AP this season due to his uphill battle with father time.  I currently have AP ranked just outside of my top 5 and he may finish with more points than a guy like Bell mainly due to four game head start he will have even though I’ll have Bell ranked higher based on his week to week value compared to Peterson's.  Assuming all the top RBs stay healthy I don’t see AP finishing ahead of the following: David Johnson, Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott.  For Peterson to finish as a top three running back he would have to play all 16 games and have a few of the guys I mentioned to miss some time.  I will not fault anyone for taking Peterson as a top three running back but I feel a 2008 LT type of season coming when the regression comes out of nowhere despite people claiming Peterson is the safest running back in the draft much like they were with LT in 2008.

Andrew's Over/Unders

Doug Baldwin O/U 8.5 TDs
 
Jared: Baldwin emerged as the top touchdown target for the Seahawks last season. I think he continues to fill that void and remains a vital part of that offense. I’ll take the over.
 
Hayden: Baldwin has started growing on me big time the past month.  Last season he finished with 14 receiving touchdowns which was tied for first.  So either this was an anomaly or this Baldwin should be treated as a double digit touchdown guy going forward.  I realize Baldwin is a prime candidate to experience some touchdown regression since eleven of his 14 touchdowns came in five games.  You could say he is the Devonta Freeman of the WRs.  However, the Seahawks are still in need of a scoring threat in the passing game.  Ten of Baldwin’s touchdowns came after Graham was lost for the season and I personally do not think we will ever see the Jimmy Graham of old.  I think Baldwin continues being the top target in the offense so I will take the over on this one. 
 
Zach Ertz O/U 1,000 Receiving Yards

Hayden: This one is easy for me and I am taking the under.  The main reason is I am just not a believer in Zach Ertz.  I understand the situation he is in can be very friendly to tight ends but I think those that are expecting a breakout season for Ertz are setting themselves up for disappointment. 
 
Jared: If anyone can fill the Kelce role in Doug Pederson’s offense it’s Zach Ertz. I think he is line for a really good season, but 1,000 receiving yards is a little too high for me. Taking the under.
 
Marcus Mariota O/U 500 rushing yards

Jared: The Titans improved their offensive line this past offseason, but I still think Mariota will have to use his legs to extend and create plays. Mix in a few designed runs and I think Mariota just tops this. Over.

Hayden: The Titans have come out and stated they plan to let him run more this year.  I like the idea of them utilizing his legs more this year and I think this will lead to him eclipsing 500 yards rushing.  Mariota has the potential to be a poor man’s Russell Wilson.
 
Ryan Mathews O/U 1,200 rushing yards

Hayden: I think Mathews has a solid year this year.  He has potential to put up low end RB1 high end RB2 numbers week in and week out.  The knock on Mathews has always been health.  Here is a prediction for you even if Mathews plays 16 games he will not exceed 1,200 yards rushing.  I think he provides a ton of value to the passing game so I see him having 1,500 total yards with 1,000-1,100 of it coming on the ground. 

Jared:  Health is key with Ryan Mathews. If he does remain healthy he has a real shot. However, I don’t think that happens. Under

Hayden's Over/Unders

O/U Cam Newton 39.5 total touchdowns

Andrew: Over… I think that Cam has the ability to throw 35 or so TD's and with his added in rushing ability, I am definitely confident that he will surpass the 40 total TD mark.  Cam is essentially the goal-line back in the Panthers offense as he scored a whopping 10 rushing TD's last year.  With the addition of Kelvin Benjamin back into the offense it can only help his TD output.

Jared: Over. Cam is the obvious x-factor in this offense. His contribution to the run game really has proven to be the difference in whether the Panthers are victorious or not. I think he’s in line to have a season of 8 or more rushing TDs, and can easily rake in 32 through the air.

O/U Brandon Cooks 89.5 catches & 7.5 touchdowns

Jared: Cooks is in line to retain the top spot on the Saints depth chart. Drew Brees is a gunslinger, and I expect Cooks to feast. I think he puts up well over 90 catches and hauls in anywhere from 9 to 12 touchdowns.

Andrew: Under/Over… Man, these are both really, really close.  I think he can find his way to about 85 catches but could easily see him getting to 90. I think cooks will score a good amount I think he gets to the 8-9 TD mark, with reasonable upside of getting to 10.  I think the sheer volume he has will likely lift his value up, as there is not much certain right now in the big easy, with 2 new receivers in Thomas and Fleener, as well as having little other receiver threats.  I think that Cooks has the ability to make up for his small stature, by scoring TD’s outside the 20.  There is a lot to like about Cooks for sure.

Assuming Gronk finishes as the top tight end O/U 24.5 points separating he and the 2nd ranked tight end

Andrew: Over… Again, we see Jordan Reed's health come into play, because if both he and Gronkowski were guaranteed a clean bill of health, I think it would be an easy under.  Besides Jordan Reed, the only other TE that it seems possible to even approach Gronk is Greg Olsen.  However, Olsen seems like more a floor option at the position. In his first 5 years as a Panther he never scored more than seven TD's, getting over 1,000 yards twice.  He is very consistent with his floor week to week but I don’t think he has the talent to compete with players of the caliber of Gronk or even Reed when healthy.  So once again Gronk sits at the TE thrown, making a good early-mid 2nd round selection.

Jared: In PPR I’ll take the under. I believe Jordan Reed is in line for a 90 plus catch season, and those catches will prove to be the difference maker. However, in standard I’ll take the over. I don’t think Reed will have the yardage and TDs to keep up.

O/U 7.5 running backs finishing with 200 or more points in standard scoring

Jared: Under, but not by much. Last season we had only two RBs score over 200 standard fantasy points last season (Devonta Freeman & Adrian Peterson.) With a high amount of quality running backs this season I think it’s easy to assume we will see an increase. However I do not see eight RBs making it to the promise land. I think it’ll max out at 6 this season.

Andrew: Under- Only 2 RB (Adrian Peterson and Devonta Freeman) scored over 200 points last year.  It did seem to be a year with an unusual amount of injuries, but I have to think that multiple high priced guys will be bitten by the feared injury bug.  Also, I don't really see a ton of guys that can get to 200 regardless of injury.  The list is Bell, Elliott, DJ, AP, Gurley, Lamar Miller and Jamaal Charles, maybe Mark Ingram, maybe Devonta Freeman again, maybe?  So that is 7 RB's I feel really good about getting there, and 2 that I do not feel good about getting there.  So even if health was not a factor there would only be 7 backs I really feel good about, so it would be an under still.